Bruno - What's Going On?

Matthew tries (and fails) to answer the question on everyone's lips right now

Well, we knew this summer would be one of “transition”, rebuild even. But I don't think any of us foresaw quite the scale or speed of what is increasingly looking like a complete teardown.

We'll come back to that bigger picture shortly, but we most definitely wouldn't be doing our job as a purveyor of NUFC-related waffle and gob-shitery, if we failed to lead today with the number one issue on everyone's mind - the fate of Bruno. So many questions, so few answers.

First off, what's the status of his widely reported “come and get me” plea (I do love that expression) to Arsenal? Or to put it another way, does he really want to leave so much that he'll actively push for it and torch his relationship with the fans?

The strongest counter-argument, of course, is that this is an agent’s ploy. With two years left on his contract and no signs of a renegotiation on the cards, there's nothing to concentrate minds like manufactured outside interest. I confess, this was my first reading of the Arsenal stories. If nothing else, I just didn't see why they would want to spend £60m on a physically limited player approaching his 30s. That's a lot of money for someone with no resale value who wouldn't be first choice in his position.

And that cuts both ways too, of course. Why would Bruno swap the adulation of the fans and his status as captain and automatic first choice for life in squad rotation? I know, I know. Money. The chance to win the title and the Champions League. Or at least a winner's medal. But you don't have to be a subtle reader of personality types and psychology to see that Bruno needs that adulation. It's his oxygen. Is he really prepared to frustrate his lead actor energy with a role in the supporting cast?

Increasingly, the answer to that seems to be yes. So, let's say we take those reports at face value. Bruno wants to leave and is prepared to say so publicly. And Arsenal are prepared to bid to sign him. What's the most likely outcome? Is it time to say our goodbyes?

Well, it seems to me that it depends on three questions: 1. How hard is Bruno prepared to push to get his move? 2. How stubborn will the club be in blocking a move? 3. How high are Arsenal prepared to go to secure his signature?

Obviously, we haven't got a clue about the answer to the last of these, but logic suggests that anything approaching £70m would be a lot to spend, given his age. Presumably the rationale is to spare Declan Rice’s legs as far as possible over the next two years, thereby maximizing their title-winning window. What's that worth? It feels like they won't go to £80m. Or at least if I was their accountant, I would advise them against it.

In that case, what would Newcastle accept for him? Or to put it another way, why might they accept a fee for the only player who stood between us and relegation last year, the only player who seemed to give a shit, the only player capable of winning a match for us, and the only player capable of lifting those around him?

Here, it's probably worth considering the alternatives. With one year left on his contract next summer and another year in those quicksand legs, we'd be lucky to demand half the fee that seems to be on offer now. That's alternative no. 1 and it's not an attractive one. Option no. 2 is a bumper extended contract on wages close to those he would be getting at Arsenal. To tie ourselves into that for a player into his 30s who already struggles to cover the ground and whose level is hardly consistent would be financial madness.

In that light, 70m might be difficult to resist, especially for a club that seems to want to act decisively in moving players on who don't want to be here. There'll be no repeat of the Isak fiasco is the new mantra, even if the prospect of Bruno emulating Cunty McCuntface in downing tools seems difficult to imagine. Would Bruno who needs our affection so much really be prepared to take the abuse and vitriol? I'd be surprised if it comes to that. This is going to hinge entirely on how much Arsenal are prepared to pay - 80m and he's gone; below 70m, and he probably stays; anything in between and my hunch is he still goes because of the club's new approach.

In that case, this really does become a complete ground zero. If the Manzambi deal comes off too, that'll be three high-level starters for England, Italy, and Brazil out the door in exchange for four players so far who between them have started no more than 30 matches in the top 5 European leagues, all of them aged 20 or under, and none of them a starter for more than a year. Talk about an abrupt change in strategy. Hugely exciting, but also a massive risk.

And what of the man who led that previous strategy, the man who looked broken and bereft of ideas as the season came to an end. How does he feel about having his best players sold from beneath him? How would he feel about losing his talisman and captain? Would he consider his position?

Perhaps, but there’s another view altogether, which is that this might just be the best possible outcome for him. What better to light the fires again than a new challenge, a talented set of youngsters looking for guidance and direction? No longer does he have to try and get through to players who had long since tired of hearing the same message.

Crucially, it also transforms expectations to the point where it's difficult to see how Eddie can lose, especially as he enters the final stages of his current contract. No longer is Champions League qualification or a trophy the measure of success. Instead it's probably a top half finish. Succeed and he can negotiate his future from a position of strength. Fail and he enjoys the cast-iron alibi of what will be spun by his coterie of North East client journalists as a misguided transfer policy imposed on him from above. After all, it's difficult escape the feeling that Ross Wilson is building a team for Howe's successor right now.

With everything up in the air and a club on the edge, it's suddenly 2021 all over again. Weirdly, I'm quite looking forward to this.

Matthew Philpotts

Image: Bryan Berlin, Wiki Portraits, CC BY-SA 4.0