Football by Algorithm

Les diagnoses our central problem

There’s a lot of chatter in social and mainstream media that the Premier League is boring, well maybe not boring but definitely dull this season. I actually think there is something in this line as well. Let’s look at some of the issues that are raised.

The game has become a statistician’s dream. Any appraisal of standards is usually accompanied by new phrases like “oh but look at the xG” or “the percentage of successful passes is ranked in the top 3”. You know what I mean, don’t you?

Yet our eyes and brains have watched a game that just didn’t vibe with us. I’ve been watching football for decades - I can genuinely tell if a player or a team is working well. I don’t need to be a level 4 coach to know the difference.

Eddie Howe uses the stats to defend what a lot of us see as valid criticism. He will churn out responses that sound justified but don’t make sense to our eyes and brains. I think they call it gaslighting, is that what it’s called?

The one thing I’ve noticed about Newcastle’s rapidly failing season is how we make the same mistakes, the same deficiencies. Yet we are confronted by the manager saying he was pleased to a degree but that yet again we just aren’t “winning those moments”. The players are trying hard but it’s just not happening, it’s bad luck or bad choices that are hurting us.

The most recent defeat at home to Everton has really highlighted the lack of confidence in the squad and also, worryingly, the lack of answers from the management to end this terrible run of displays.

I can see the reasons just using common sense and I don’t think the answers are easy if I’m honest. Newcastle United like most clubs play football by algorithm. The game is planned out in advance, each situation is reacted to in a certain way to achieve success and repeated incessantly to get the result.

I remember a recent interview with Dan Burn where he was very open about how they were coached. They would react in very specific ways to each situation that arises. It was worked on incessantly in training and this was why new players didn’t hit the ground running and took some time to bed in.

If this is true, then it really explains why we are bang in trouble now, like other clubs who play in a similar fashion.

Eddie Howe has very limited time on the training ground these days. The success of the team in cups and Champions League means they play every three or four days and, when you factor in time off and travel time, they are maybe getting one or two sessions a week to work on strategy. If your whole system relies on meticulous repeated training to be successful, then not being able to practice it will only set you up to fail.

On the back of this, you can see why we struggle to break down teams, especially in the league this season. Most coaches have seemed to work out that if you allow us to have the ball and territory we will struggle to break them down. Our players are so indoctrinated into one system that they can’t seem to think and act individually, repeating the same side-to-side passing from flank to flank, looking to throw in a cross to players who aren’t able to convert as they either are too small or not there at all. We average 25.8 crosses per game and are successful 8% of the time in converting them. I’m not being difficult here in thinking this might fall into the definition of insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?

Most things Eddie Howe is criticised for can be explained by the algorithm style of play as well. He can’t make in-game changes, he always replaces the same players/positions and at the same time in games without any changes to system, or he always plays 4-3-3 regardless of how unsuccessful it is. This all leads back to sticking to the formula, even though it’s not working. It’s what they’ve practised, nobody should go off script.

His initial successes were superb and justified because he came into a club that had a very poor and limited squad of players. He retained the athletes and added in a system that we know well now, while adding players to fit into the system and up until the second half of last season it worked. They managed to be successful, but the drop off was plain for all to see and even though we won the Carabao Cup, our general play was beginning to falter as we stumbled to UCL qualification, nearly blowing it at the death.

I sometimes sit in games and find myself becoming frustrated by passes we just don’t attempt, apart from Bruno, that are incisive and direct rather than side to side. I refuse to think the players don’t see them - they are sometimes obvious but, as they don’t fit the system, the lads just don’t make them. This probably explains why we just can’t win without him. Bruno Guimarães is the one player who has the brains to try something different. We are so easy defend against without him.

There has been a big rise in how badly we defend these days as well. This from my perspective is down to two things.

When teams give us the ball, our defensive line becomes very high, around the halfway line. This leaves us extremely vulnerable to quick counter attacks simply because of the personnel we have on the pitch. Burn and Trippier are now elderly in football terms and the one thing they lack is pace, so we can be attacked centrally and down the right flank easily. Factor in that Lewis Hall is often in very advanced positions trying help us create chances, this puts a lot pressure on Malik Thiaw and, worryingly, Nick Pope. Our first choice goalkeeper has lots of good points but defending quickly by coming out of his box is not one of them. I feel the pressure he is now under from this has affected his general game and he’s even making mistakes in areas he was traditionally strong on: shot stopping and commanding his box.

Now I’m going to defend Eddie Howe as thus far I’ve given him a hard time. He had no choice but to create the system he did. Traditionally he was a more adventurous coach at Bournemouth but being a pragmatist has elevated Newcastle to new heights. However, he has been let down by the club in as much as they haven’t backed him properly. Two CEOs and two DoFs have come and gone without any real contributions and that mismanagement has really stalled any development of the playing squad. The investment in the summer was panicked and wasteful and hasn’t provided any bonus to an already diminished squad. That has led to the inability to making any changes to the playing system at all.

He has had to cling on to players who just don’t add any value to his squad, a sort of safety in numbers policy that has not really born fruit when we look at it. The squad is now the oldest in the league, the star players are now very unsettled and being openly and actively courted by our rivals, and you can’t blame them if they are now looking elsewhere to progress their careers really. I’m expecting a huge amount of movement this summer both in and out. Howe is still talking about retaining players who should be long gone, which is a worry, but that might just be muscle memory on his part as, so far, he’s been let down with removals and additions.

It's the biggest test of his tenure coming up over the remainder of the season, will he, can he, lift the shackles from his players and give them some freedom to play with a bit more individuality and creativity or will he flog the dead horse of the old system until the end?

With Ross Wilson and David Hopkinson at the helm I can see the overhaul of the squad being deep and hard this summer. Our current crop of premier players may well be changed as I can see moves away for any of them but definitely Livramento. Tonali seems eminently possible as does Anthony Gordon.

I can also see a big exodus of the lesser used and older players, with those like Schär, Trippier, Krafth, Willock, Gillespie, Ruddy, Jacob Murphy and Alex Murphy moving on.

This season might end up being quite tortuous until the end. It’s possible the season will be over within 10 days or so. Beating either of the Manchester clubs this week is probably beyond us at the moment and Barcelona will prove to have too much quality over two legs. Our remaining league fixtures are tough as well so I think I’m expecting a sort of mourning sensation until we can get into the summer and sit back, hoping to see the big step up we need to eventually move on to a brighter future.

It’s been long overdue.

Les Cash

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